缅甸民主转型陷入停滞

发表时间:2013-04-02内容来源:VOA英语学习网

After 25 years of campaigning for free elections in Myanmar, Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy has at long last been able to hold some elections of its own. Last weekend almost 1,000 NLD delegates mustered in Yangon to elect a central committee.

在为缅甸能够举行自由选举争取了25年之久后,昂山素季(Aung San Suu Kyi)领导的全国民主联盟(National League for Democracy,简称:全民盟)终于能够举行该党自己的一些选举了。3月上旬,将近1000名全民盟代表齐聚仰光,选举出了该党的中央委员会。

The irony was that not all members of the party were thrilled with the idea. After years of operating clandestinely under repressive military rule, the party is struggling to make the transition to a modern political organisation capable of taking the reins of power. Older members, some of whom spent years being tortured in the country’s grisly jails, resent the fact that younger upstarts are moving in.

具有讽刺意味的是,并不是所有的全民盟党员都为这件事感到振奋不已。在高压的军事统治下秘密运作了多年后,全民盟正在艰难地向一个有能力掌权的现代政治组织转型。令老党员们(其中一些曾在缅甸可怕的监狱中遭受了多年的折磨)感到气愤的一件事是,该党年轻的后起之秀们正在抢占党内的位置。

Ructions and jealousies are inevitable as the former opposition adjusts to the changes that have swept the country since the junta gave way to a form of controlled democracy in 2010. In many ways, Myanmar – which has held free by-elections, taken an axe to censorship and re-established diplomatic ties with the west – has come far further than almost anyone predicted even two years ago.

骚动和嫉妒是不可避免的。这个缅甸的前反对党正在适应国内的变革。自2010年缅甸军政府让位于一种有控制的民主体制以来,这场变革已席卷全国。从很多方面来看,缅甸取得的进步已远远超出绝大多数人在两年前的预期。该国举行了自由补选,废除了新闻审查制度,重建了与西方的外交关系。

Many western businesses are now salivating at the prospect of the next Asian frontier, though most have, probably wisely, held off making big bets until the lie of the land becomes clearer. That will partly depend on how things like the much-haggled-over foreign investment law works in practice. Crucially, it will also hang on what happens politically.

缅甸或将成为亚洲的下一个新兴国家。很多西方企业现在都对该国的发展前景抱有很大兴趣。不过,其中大多数企业都选择在形势变得更为明朗之前先不押下巨额赌注。这种做法很可能是明智的。这件事在一定程度上将取决于,经过多次讨价还价后出台的外商投资法等措施的实施效果如何。至关重要的是,它还取决于缅甸政局的变化。

Timothy Garton Ash, a British historian who has studied societies in transition, worries that Myanmar’s process could stall.

研究转型社会的英国历史学家蒂莫西·加顿·阿什(Timothy Garton Ash)担心,缅甸的进步可能陷入停滞。他表示,一股政治旋风在短短3个月内就把瓦茨拉夫·哈维尔(Vaclav Havel)这名“受迫害的异见分子”送上捷克斯洛伐克“总统宝座”,昂山素季却没有这个命。或可把昂山素季送上总统宝座的缅甸大选要到2015年才会举行。到那时,她就70岁了。诚然,这为她领导的政党留出时间,为上台执政做准备(该党连经营一家茶馆的经验都没有,更别提治理国家的经验了)。但另一方面,这也会让转型陷入某种停滞状态。

Not for Ms Suu Kyi, he says, is the three-month whirlwind that swept Václav Havel from “persecuted dissident to the president’s castle”

或许最大的危险在于,无法在2015年之前就民族冲突达成任何政治和解。自缅甸1948年独立以来,这种民族冲突就一直存在。缅甸的人口估计为5500万至6000万(该国已有数十年没进行过真正的人口普查),其中至少30%为少数民族,其余为多数民族缅族。如果少数民族对他们未在联邦内部获得公平的代表权感到不满,那么这些民族的政治家可能会倾向于争取本族彻底独立。最好的结果是,这会给选举蒙上阴影。最坏的结果是,这可能导致这个脆弱的国家出现南斯拉夫式的解体。在缅甸作为英属印度的一部分时,该国的边境地区从未真正整固过。

in Czechoslovakia. General elections that could conceivably make Ms Suu Kyi president will not take place until 2015. By then, she will be 70. True, that gives her party, which has no experience of running a tea shop let alone a country, time to prepare for office. On the other hand, it puts the transition in a kind of limbo.

缅甸在化解民族冲突方面取得的进展只能说是表面上的。该国由军政府变身而来的文官政府已与多个少数民族组织签订停火协议。但是,如果达不成政治解决方案、不能赋予少数民族地区一定程度的真正自治,那么这些停火估计不会持续太久。最近,缅甸政府与克钦族签署了初步停火协议(二者之间是在2011年再度爆发战争的)。但缅甸军方被控在过去实施了种种暴行(包括强奸)。这一切为正从反对党偶像转型为候任总统的昂山素季制造了很大的麻烦。由于昂山素季没有以更坚定的态度为克钦邦和若开邦受迫害的少数民族仗义执言,已经有一些人对她感到颇为失望。此外,她还强调了自己对缅甸军方的“喜爱之情”,这些言论几乎不可能让少数民族感到安心。

Perhaps the greatest danger would be if no political settlement were found before 2015 to ethnic conflicts that have rumbled on since independence in 1948. At least 30 per cent of Myanmar’s estimated 55m-60m people (no proper census has been taken in decades) are from ethnic minorities other than the majority Burmans. If minorities are not satisfied that they are fairly represented within a federal union, their politicians may be tempted to campaign for outright independence. At best, that could cloud the elections. At worst, it could precipitate a Yugoslav-style break-up of a fragile country whose borders were never properly consolidated when it was part of British India.

如果她想朝一日成为总统,她必须得到军方的认同。缅甸现行宪法禁止她担任总统,根据是她的丈夫是外国人(迈克尔·阿里斯(Michael Aris),已过世)。若要推翻这部宪法,必须在议会中争取到75%的多数票,而在缅甸议会中占多数的,恰恰是刚刚退役或仍在服役的军方人士。

What progress has been made in resolving ethnic tensions only goes skin-deep. The military-turned-civilian government has signed ceasefire agreements with several ethnic minority groups. But these are not expected to last if a political solution is not reached that awards ethnic regions a degree of genuine autonomy. In recent days, a tentative ceasefire has been agreed with the Kachin, with whom fighting reignited in 2011. But the army has been accused of its old brutalities, including rape. All this has put Ms Suu Kyi in a tight spot as she makes her own transition from opposition deity to president-in-waiting. She has dismayed some by not speaking out more strongly for persecuted minorities in Kachin and Rakhine state. She has also stressed her “fondness” for the army, words hardly likely to reassure ethnic minorities.

在其他方面,昂山素季也不得不适应新的角色。她被指定领导一个委员会(这项任务无疑让她感到有些棘手),去调查警方对一些僧侣实施的暴行——这些僧侣占领了一座由中国所有的铜矿。调查结论本身很务实:警方必须学会如何更好地控制人群,但铜矿可以继续运营、不应违反与中国所有者签订的合同。

If she is ever to become president, she will need the military’s blessing. The current constitution bars her from holding the presidency on the grounds of her marriage to a foreigner, the late Michael Aris. That constitution can only be overturned by a 75 per cent majority in a parliament dominated by recently retired military or those still serving.

在公开场合,昂山素季表现得颇为乐观。但私下里,她对政府更多地是持批评态度。尽管取得了种种政治进步,但缅甸政府在改善普通人生活方面几乎毫无作为。由于通胀的影响,缅甸穷人的日子现在可能更糟了。在农村,非法没收土地的现象有所增多。

In other ways, too, Ms Suu Kyi is having to adjust to a new role. She was, doubtless to her discomfort, put in charge of a commission to investigate police brutality against monks who were occupying a Chinese-owned copper mine. The inquiry’s conclusion was pragmatism itself: the police must learn better crowd-control methods, but the mine can continue operations and the contract with its Chinese owners should not be broken.

这些都是未来据信将由昂山素季领导的缅甸政府面临的实际问题。一些人担心(这种担心不是没有道理的),全民盟缺乏政策制定深度,其领袖身边都是一群唯唯诺诺的人,这些人的恭顺态度使得他们无法对昂山素季的权威或判断提出质疑。对于管理一个有着巨大社会问题和地缘政治隐忧的脆弱民主国家而言,这种准备实在算不上理想。

In public, Ms Suu Kyi is reasonably upbeat. But in private she is more critical of a government that, for all the political progress, has done little to improve the lives of ordinary people. The country’s poor may be worse off because of inflation. In the countryside, illegal land confiscations have intensified.

遗憾的是,昂山素季不得不等上很长一段时间才能着手去解决这些问题。

These are the practical problems that await a putative government led by Ms Suu Kyi. Some worry, not without reason, that the party lacks policy making depth and that its leader is surrounded by a group of yes-men, whose deference prohibits them from questioning her authority or judgment. That is not ideal preparation for running a fragile democracy with huge social issues and geostrategic concerns.

译者:梁艳裳

来自:VOA英语网 文章地址: http://www.tingvoa.com/html/20130402/113503.html